Housing is a common topic of conversation these days. In fact over the past few days a few people have asked me if I could help them sell their homes. Now, I politely explain that I arrange for home loans and am not licenced as a real estate agent. This hasn’t deterred some folks. One lady I spoke to today told me she’d used three different real estate agents in the past year and she couldn’t sell her home. She didn’t blame the agents, she was too smart. She made the point that you can’t sell something if you don’t have a buyer. So, she wanted to know if I could help her find some buyers!
This has got to be the ”comment of the year”. No matter how shiny your widget, you can’t sell if if there is no buyer. Now replace widget for anything and you get the point. This lady hit the nail on the head.
So, when are they buyers coming back? May 6, 2009 to be exact! Acutally, to be perfectly honest, I don’t know. However, I’m more inclined to say the market will not be back for another whole year. The soonest you could expect a recovery is probably Q4 of 2008. However, I’m of the opinion that it’s more likey to be around early to mid 2009 before we have enough buyers to balance out the sellers.
Bloomberg makes a similar point:
For U.S. homeowners, builders, bankers and realtors, the crash of 2007 will only get worse in 2008.
Everyone from mortgage-finance company Fannie Mae to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. expects declines next year. Existing home sales will drop 12 percent and existing home prices will fall 4.5 percent, Washington-based Fannie Mae says. Lehman analysts estimate almost 1 million mortgage loans will default in 2008, up from about 300,000 this year.
“We’re only halfway through the housing shock,” said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at New York-based Lehman, the fourth- biggest U.S. securities firm by market value. “It’s just a matter of time before the weakness spreads to the rest of the economy.”
Is this too dire? Maybe. Is this too rosy? Maybe. Like I said, the housing market will return on May 6, 2009. You’re welcome to leave a message.
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on Dec 19th, 2007 at 11:26 am
That’s actually pretty creative on her part!
I have a coworker who has family wanting to help her move into a house and due to her very unstable financial situation, buying would be terrible. She doesn’t have the savings, earnings, or ability to weather negative equity in a bad market.
I’m curious to see how the election will affect things.
on Dec 27th, 2007 at 2:17 pm
Brilliant! I love this post. Such a random date, but I bet if you said it to the right person, with just the right serious expression on your face, he or she would believe it and feel comforted. So many of us are unsure, confused, and even a little frightened about what’s going on with the US housing market. Collectively, Americans have such short memories that few of us remember the last time there was a pullback in housing prices. We’re all just wanting a little reassurance that someone, anyone knows what’s going on and how to fix it. Me? I trust my blogging friends more than anybody else!
on Jan 1st, 2008 at 10:35 am
I admire the prediction on recovery but i disagree. The greed and corruption in this country is catching up with us. America is heading for a very serious financial situation that no one has seen. It is not just because of corrupt bankers, appraisers, politicans and real estate institutions to make more money but the whole picture that needs to be looked at in this country. The days of living above your means to make yourself feel good are over. If you are not living within your means and saving money you will be left out. How many people care about the homeless in this country? You could possibly be next and I suggest you prepare yourself for financial collapse. You have used up your equity and credit lines to look and feel important but will soon realize that you are not important. Quit playing the game that savy businesses and politicans that are corrupt playing you for a fool in order to finance their selfish and lavish lifestyles. Wake up America! Use your common sense and power of reasoning before it is too late. Do not buy anything on credit except a house in 2009. Do not refinance it for a vacation, wedding or any other creature comfort. Imaginary money does not make you rich. Through your credit cards in the trash and walk away from the scam. If 50% of all Americans do not do this by 2010 we will be destroyed financially by 2012. Good luck. Hope your prepared. Play your own game now you have been warned!