At the risk of sounding like an alarmist I’m going to reveal a few things that’s been bouncing around my head ever since the Fed abruptly dropped rates by 75 basis points that sunny January morning (hey it was sunny in Phoenix). I’m normally not like this, but it hasn’t helped that there are two foreclosures in my neighborhood and one bank owned property down the street. And I’m worried about one other neighbor -the weeds keep growing and I haven’t seen them put garbage out for a few weeks AND the lights are never on at night. Did I say I was going to ramble a bit here? Again kind of unusual for this blog.. but I digress…
Here is my line of thinking. Gold prices are highest since the early 1980s. The old rule is that the price of gold is like a canary in a mine, and the higher its price moves the greater the economic woes. Oil is peaking, banks are losing money, the war keeps draining tax dollars and so on and so forth. The news is just bad, everywhere you look, bad, bad, bad. Then, I read this today at the Financial Times:
US banks have been quietly borrowing massive amounts of money from the Federal Reserve in recent weeks by using a new measure the Fed introduced two months ago to help ease the credit crunch. The use of the Fed’s Term Auction Facility, which allows banks to borrow at relatively attractive rates against a wider range of their assets than previously permitted, saw borrowing of nearly $50bn of one-month funds from the Fed by mid-February.
So, basically the Federal government is propping banks up. The article later on tries to give some kind of explanation. I don’t buy the spin folks. I just don’t. With the Fed set to further reduce rates in it’s up coming March meeting, the Feds are obviously seeking to keep liquidity up because the credit squeeze is spreading and there are potential problems in “opaque corners” as the article references.
So, my question now is how far away are we from a collapse of the unsecured consumer debt market (credit cars, auto loan etc.)? How about commercial property? Funny, that I should raise this issue because Professor Nouriel Roubini of New York University’s Stern School of Business has created a list of the 12 steps to economic collapse - the mother of all meltdowns! Prof. Roubini accurately predicted the current situation we’re in way back in July 2006, so he’s not a fear monger. Fortunately, he supposedly has a lit of cures, but I haven’t read that yet.. (did I say this was a ramble?)
So, anyways, I’m concerned. The Feds know there is something coming down the pipeline that will cause massive harm to the economy, I think they are thinking depression not recession. That is the only rational explanation for the 200 basis point drop in rates (in a few months). There has to be something they see happening and that is why they are breaking from traditional US policy and “propping” up banks.
My question is: What is this? What is going on? Did the ship hit an iceberg and they’re trying to fix the hull? Or, are we about to hit an iceberg and they’re trying to steer clear? As I stare at the weeds growing in the foreclosed homes in my neighborhood I keep thinking… what… what.. what…. is going on? Am I going off a cliff here? Please leave a comment so I can know… Or do you suggest I go to a Obama rally and get inspired… oh wait I hear you faint at those things… nah… not my cup of tea….. anyways.. or should I just buy gold?
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Tags: doom and gloom, economic, federal reserve
Categories: Congress and Government, Economics
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